U.S. :: Employment for Mar 07
Nonfarm payroll employment rose much more than expected (+180,000) in March, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged at 4.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Manufacturing employment continued to trend down
BEFORE THE NEWS
Nonfarm payroll employment slowed to a 97,000 rise in February, following a 146,000 boost in January and a 226,000 advance in December. With recent improvement in jobless claims, payroll increases may improve. However, given the weakness in manufacturing and in housing, expect the improvement to be in services. Wages were strong in February with a 0.4 percent gain, following a 0.2 percent rise in January. Markets will be watching to see if the average hourly earnings figure moderates to help sooth the Fed’s inflation concerns.
THE NEWS
In March, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 180,000 to 137.6 million, after
seasonal adjustment. This increase followed gains of 162,000 in January and
113,000 in February (as revised). Over the year, total nonfarm employment rose by about 2.0 million. In March, construction employment rose sharply, following a large decline in the prior month. A sizable job gain also occurred in general merchandise stores in March, and job growth continued in health care and in food services. Manufacturing employment continued to trend down over the month (-16,000).
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours in March, seasonally ad-
justed. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.2 hour to 41.1 hours, and
manufacturing overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 4.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, in March to $17.22, seasonally
adjusted. During the first quarter of 2007, average hourly earnings rose by 15
cents; in 2006, hourly earnings growth averaged 18 cents per quarter. Average
weekly earnings increased by 0.6 percent over the month to $583.76. Over the
year, average hourly and weekly earnings grew by 4.0 and 4.4 percent,
respectively.
Timestamp: 1175862600
Date and Time: April 06, 2007 12:30 GMT (12:30 GMT 0) Market Expectation: 4.6%YY 118K(Chg) -10K(Mfg Chg) 0.3%MM(Avg Hourly Earnings) 33.8(Avg Weekly Hours) Expected Forex Reaction:  Actual: 4.4%YY 180K(Chg) -16K(Mfg Chg) 0.3%MM(Avg Hourly Earnings) 33.9(Avg Weekly Hours)
<< Back to List Comments: Peter Sw - April 06, 2007 12:43 GMT (12:43 GMT 0) my +35 pips = $3500 yahooo!! Peter Sw - April 06, 2007 07:56 GMT (07:56 GMT 0) The dollar rose on nfp for Dec, Jan and Feb. Why not to rise today?
FXCM says: The upcoming NFP report may prove especially volatile given that many US and European markets will be closed for Good Friday. There have only been three instances in the past 17 years in which Non Farm Payrolls has fallen on this significant holiday, and previous price action shows that illiquidity tends to greatly accentuate post-news swings. Traders should be especially careful with entry and stop-loss orders, making sure to wait at least five minutes to enter post-news positions. Given the recent Euro rally, many traders are looking for a dollar bounce regardless of what happens through tomorrow's report. This sets up a potential EURUSD crash on a stronger NFP print, with a strong move to challenge support at the 1.3350. If the headline number prints above consensus estimates, markets will almost certainly bid the dollar higher immediately following the announcement. Previous results suggest that the true profit potential comes on revisions to the previous month's data, however, as price tends to extend for longer periods of time. The news trader may go short the EURUSD if price action confirms the USD-bullish print. Stops should be placed above previous swing-highs, while profit targets will be discretionary.
If March NFP's come in below consensus figures and/or February numbers are revised lower, we will see the opposite move in the EURUSD. Resistance is seen at the 2005 high of 1.3479, with a break above eyeing a move towards the all-time EURUSD peak. It is difficult to predict whether 1.3479 can be breached, but a sustained move above would certainly confirm a EUR-bullish bias and allow for significant price extension through the coming weeks of trade. hallman - April 06, 2007 06:53 GMT (06:53 GMT 0) after that funny China-related surge I expect any number to turn dollar positive, nevertheless the trade can be choppy today as long holidays approach nofollow - April 05, 2007 19:57 GMT (19:57 GMT 0) Technically, I suppose the dollar's fall is much more likely after NFP.
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